conservative commentator challenges the networks and pentagon about scenario of civil war

quick strikes planned on insurgents and al-qaida in Iraq

General: Quick strikes planned in Iraq

By PAULINE JELINEK — Associated Press Writer

Published: Thursday, August 16, 2007

A U.S. Army soldier from Alpha Company, 1st Battalion, 5th Cavalry Regiment, 2nd Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division is reflected in a puddle in the Amariyah neighborhood, west Baghdad, Iraq, Thursday, Aug. 16, 2007.

Petr David Josek — AP Photo

WASHINGTON (AP) The No. 2 American commander in Iraq said Friday that coalition forces are planning “quick strike raids” aimed at smashing al-Qaida and other insurgents in far-flung parts of the country before the U.S. brings some of its buildup troops home.Army Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno said that in a nation torn by violence from Sunni insurgents, Shiite militias and al-Qaida terrorists, right now al-Qaida is the biggest threat because it wants to establish a safe haven in Iraq.“If we can, we want to finish them off,” he said of al-Qaida.Speaking to Pentagon reporters by video conference from Baghdad, he also said commanders are planning in April to start withdrawing troops sent in as part of President Bush’s buildup – and complete the drawdown to pre-escalation levels by August 2008.

Military operations launched since the escalation have helped coalition forces capture and kill insurgent leaders, disrupt their operations and retake some territory from them in main population centers, he said. Odierno asserted that coalition forces now “have a chance to really go after them and defeat them.”

Officials believe extremists are trying to regroup in northern Iraq, where American troop presence is much lighter, after being driven from strongholds in and around Baghdad. Odierno acknowledged the devastation of this week’s bomb attack in two northern Iraqi villages that officials say killed at least 500 people.The military has calmed areas of the country in the past, then moved on to other places only to find insurgents return to the just-calmed area. Commanders have said the extra troops from the buildup are helping them fight that problem now.It also is not a new development that as coalition forces fight a problem in one area, militants rise up in another. Odierno did not answer the question of whether he has enough troops to go after regrouping insurgents in isolated locations.“Due to the constant pressure and depletion of their leadership, extremists have been pushed out of many population centers and are on the move, seeking other places to operate within the country,” he said.

“As a result, we are now in pursuit of al-Qaida and other extremist elements, and we’ll continue to aggressively target their shrinking areas of influence,” he said.

“Over the coming weeks, we plan to conduct quick-strike raids against remaining extremist sanctuaries and staging areas,” he said, adding that the large majority of strikes will be done jointly with Iraqi forces.

The effort began Tuesday, he said, when about 16,000 U.S. and Iraqi soldiers began a sweep through the Diyala River valley north of Baghdad in pursuit of Sunni insurgents and Shiite militia fighters driven out of strongholds in recent weeks.

Odierno also said commanders are planning to withdraw the five extra brigades of soldiers sent for the buildup when their 15-month tours of duty end. The brigades arrived roughly one a month from January to June.

Asked if they would be able to leave the same way starting next April, he said he was “not willing to quite say that yet” because top commander Gen. David Petraeus may decide to send replacements for some, depending on the security situation.

But “right now, our plan is not to (replace) those units,” he said.

Odierno also said there has been a shift in calculations on who is causing the violence in Iraq. The military estimates that in July, 52 percent of the violence across the country was caused by al-Qaida and Sunni insurgents and 48 percent by Shiite extremists – compared with January when they say Sunnis and al-Qaida accounted for 70 percent.

He said that reflects both a decrease in al-Qaida’s ability to conduct operations and a surge in Shiite violence, with support in weapons and training from Iran.

Nevertheless, he said, the troop escalation and resulting new operations have improved security and bought time for Iraqis to try to make progress toward political reconciliation. Those gains can’t be held indefinitely without improvement in the political area, he said.

“I do believe that it’s sustainable for a period of time, but it’s not a blank check, it’s not for a long period of time,” he said.

U.S. lawmakers have long complained that Iraqi officials are not taking advantage of U.S. efforts and making enough progress, and recent polls show the American public agrees.

To promote reconciliation, U.S. commanders are pushing to negotiate more agreements with Sunni groups in a program started in recent months in which some militants agreed to fight al-Qaida instead of coalition forces, with an eye toward eventually joining Iraqi government security forces.

“With the Sunni insurgency, for the most part … they have decided that we’re going to go with al-Qaida, or they’ve decided to reconcile with the government of Iraq and they’re reaching out to coalition forces” for such agreements, he said.

He said talks are under way in a number of areas and it is “important to get these groups reconciled with the government of Iraq over the next several months.”

view on the surge from the ground in Iraq….

CNN’s Michael Ware on the ‘Surge’

Of course, any reduction in the violence is great news, but the question is are major attacks declining as a direct result of the so- called troop surge? That’s where things get more complicated.

Joining me now is CNN’s Michael Ware.

Michael, the U.S. military commander in Iraq says that large-scale al Qaeda-style attacks have declined by almost 50 percent this year, down to 70 attacks a month from a high of 130. Is this because of more boots on the ground?

MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Anderson, the surge is a part of it. Militarily, the surge is designed to deny al Qaeda and the Shia death squads the freedom of movement they once had in Baghdad.

Are they doing that? Yes, to some degree. The surge has shown some successes.

But the real success, Anderson, is coming from something totally different, and that is coming from America cutting deals with its former enemies, principally the Ba’athist insurgents, the Sunni insurgents.

It’s by cutting a deal with the Ba’ath Party on the terms that the Ba’ath Party offered America four years ago and had to wait for America to be battered into submission to accept that the tide has turned against al Qaeda.

It’s by unleashing the Ba’ath that the al Qaeda bombs are coming down, that the al Qaeda attacks are starting to slow down, not directly from the surge and not from the presence of U.S. troops.

What the U.S. troops are doing is giving a set of numbers, a series of data, a number of lowered attack figures that may give the military the political cover it needs in Washington. But at the end of the day by cutting these deals the seeds are being sown for a much broader more entrenched civil war that America will leave behind.

COOPER: Which is a long-term issue, not something which in the immediate, in the short term is, you know, is on the front burner.

WARE: Absolutely. I mean, right now the administration from President Bush on is pointing to an op-ed piece that appeared in the “New York Times” by two well-respected Brookings Institute figures, Michael O’Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack.

Now, they say that yes, we’re critics of the war, and we’re seeing now positive signs. Yet even they said that what the surge is doing, mate, is not enough to produce victory, but it may produce a level of stability both we and the Iraqi people can live with.

Think about that. What we’re saying is this isn’t an American win. America is not on track to win this war. Even the president is not saying that. It just might be enough for America to get out of this war and not worry about the tens of thousands who will die at the hands of American-supported Sunni militias and Iranian-supported Shia militias.

Don’t forget, by supporting the Sunnis in the way that they are, the American administration right now is picking sides in the civil war.

COOPER: In terms of talking about big al Qaeda-style attacks and this number reduction, in terms of the success story, what about sectarian violence? Has this escalation of troops had an impact on that?

WARE: No, not really. It’s forced it to displace. It’s forced morph and to adapt as we always expected it will.

Now the number of bodies tortured, mutilated, victims of sectarian death squads that are showing up on the streets of Baghdad continue to rise and fall. Right now, there’s less than there used to be, but by less that’s still 20 tortured people showing up every morning.

Now the numbers are down for a number of reasons. One is two million people have fled the country. Another two million are displaced internally in refugee camps, so there’s simply fewer targets. And of those who remain in the capital and in the villages surrounding, they now must live in segregated communities, heavily defended by their own militias, be they American-backed Sunni militias or Iranian-backed Shia militias. No one lives together anymore, very, very few people. This place has been ethnically cleansed and segregated. So deaths are down because it’s much harder to kill each other until the Americans withdraw and the real battle begins.COOPER: Complicated picture. Michael Ware, we appreciate it. Thanks, Michael.

rising suicide rate among soldiers in Iraq/Afghanistan!

August 17, 2007 01:01pm

Meanwhile, THE US army has said that at least 99 soldiers committed suicide in 2006, nearly a third while in Iraq or Afghanistan, signaling a rising suicide rate compared to previous years.

BUT THEY HAVE A DIFFERENT EXPLANATION!

The army also recorded 948 serious suicide attempts which required hospitaliZation or evacuation as well as two deaths with unclear causes still under investigation.

Among soldiers who killed themselves in 2006, 27 were in Iraq and three were in Afghanistan.

The army also reported 44 suicides in the first six months of 2007, 17 among soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, the report said it had found no correlation between sending soldiers on missions and suicide rates.

The study authors said personal and marital relationship problems, which are often aggravated by soldiers’ absences, remained the primary motivation for the suicides.

Among active service members, the suicide rate was 17.3 per 100,000 in 2006, compared to 12.8 in 2005 and 10.8 in 2004. In 2001 the rate was 9.8 per 100,000.

The figures showed a higher rate of suicide than found in the general population of people aged 17-45, which is 13.4 per 100,000.

The video also reports that there were 900 attempted but unsuccessful suicides among soldiers in Iraq/Afghanistan…..and it reports a statistical correlation between completed suicides and length of deployment.   (note from this blogger…)

daily show to report from Iraq

Breaking: Rob Riggle to Report from REAL IRAQ All Next Week